University of Sri Jayewardenepura, Sri Lanka
June 2, 2025
(Based on 2019 data)
Favorable climate that speed up the mosquito life cycle
Warm temperatures year-round
High humidity and frequent rainfall
No harsh winters
Many equatorial countries have rapidly growing urban areas with poor waste and water management.
People often live and work in open environments with limited protection, increasing exposure.
Sri Lanka
Red Segment: Interrupted Period Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic
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Approach 1
Excluding the interrupted period from model training
Approach 2
Set interrupted period to missing
Approach 3
Forecasting the interrupted period first and then using it for modeling
Approach 4
Down-weighting observations
Approach 4
Set interrupted period to missing
Data
training period:
test period:
Method
ARIMA models through auto.arima: without applying log transformation on cases
ARIMA models through auto.arima: with applying log transformation on cases